[!@#$%!]

tv/beer/turd banter aside, the ppi data just came in hot this month, +0.3 for january, +0.6 for services -0.2 for goods. inflation still a bit sticky. the michigan consumer sentiment gets published in an hour, last month it was strong, and monthly retail sales flagged a bit in yesterday's report, -0.8 vs -0.1 predicted, so imma guess consumer sentiment will read a little weaker? sticky inflation plus weaker consumption would be like a mini stagflation (not really a stagflation just not the ideal soft landing everybody wanted). dollar did shoot up though. after today we gotta wait for the next data dump...fomc minutes feb 21?

...

eta holy shit the consumer sentiment remains STRONG

this is mixed data vs yesterday's retail figures, but january data can be "noisy" post-holidays

michigan consumer sentiment index:

Preliminary Results for February 2024
Feb Jan Feb M-M Y-Y
2024 2024 2023 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 79.6 79.0 66.9 +0.8% +19.0%
Current Economic Conditions 81.5 81.9 70.7 -0.5% +15.3%
Index of Consumer Expectations 78.4 77.1 64.5 +1.7% +21.6%

(that is a table, with 4 rows and 5 columns, notice change is listed as month to month AND year to year)

this is preliminary but yeah looks good for the economy, at the same time pushes inflation up lol

no soft landing yet, just "no landing", long runway lol

further weight to no rate cuts expected in march, so dollar is up. still looking forward to fed minutes release in 5 days