| _tunic_ |
08.01.2024 07:38 PM |
translation of a Dutch news article:
Quote:
Historian has been predicting U.S. president for 40 years and never been wrong: this is now the favorite
Ever since 1984 he has been predicting who will be the new president of the United States and never was wrong. Once again, American Allan Lichtman thinks he knows who will go home with victory. According to him, there is a clear favorite and "a lot would have to go wrong" for him to lose.
Lichtman is a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC. He developed a system with thirteen "keys. With these it is possible to predict the outcome of the US presidential election.
The keys are based on the strengths as well as the weaknesses of the party sitting in the White House leading up to the election. Right now, that party is the Democrats. If the Republicans manage to bring in six or more keys, they will win the election, Lichtman said. Otherwise, the White House will go to the Democrats.
Victory
Everything points to the fact that, according to Lichtman, Kamala Harris will win the election. "Right now the Democrats hold six keys and the Republicans hold three. There are four keys left to be divided. It is possible, but a lot would have to go wrong for Harris not to win the election,'' said the historian,
The six keys the Democrats already have are (1) that there was no real fight for the party's nomination, (2) and (3) that the short-term economy (no recession) and the long-term economy are doing well, (4) that there are no major national policy changes, (5) that there are no scandals, and (6) that the Republican challenger - Donald Trump - is not a national hero.
For their part, the Republicans now have three keys: (1) the Democrats lost seats in the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections, (2) the Democratic candidate is not the incumbent and (3) the Democratic candidate - Kamala Harris - is not a national hero.
Four keys remain to be divided. Thus, the question remains (1) whether a third party of significance will take office. All eyes here are on independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "Will he manage to reach 10 percent? According to the polls, it's unlikely,'' Lichtman said.
A second undecided key revolves around possible social unrest - as in the protest year of 1968 - and then Lichtman looks to the Democratic convention. After all, Kamala Harris was not raised on the shield in the usual way, and that could lead to discontent. "I don't think it will happen, but it could," he says of it.
The third (3) and fourth (4) undecided keys depend on whether the Democrats will have foreign successes and failures to celebrate or endure in the next three months.
Final prognosis
"A lot has to go wrong for the Democrats to lose three more of those four undecided keys," Lichtman makes the case. ''A final prognosis will follow in less than a month.'' Then is the Democratic convention, from Aug. 19 through Aug. 22, and at it Harris will in all likelihood be designated the Democratic nominee for president.
Lichtman has been accurately predicting who the next president of the United States will be since 1984. In 2016, for example, he stated that Trump would win over Hillary Clinton and that the latter would lose to Biden in 2020.
His prediction around the 2000 election is debated, though. Back then, Lichtman said Democratic Vice President Al Gore would outperform Republican candidate George W. Bush, but that was not the case. Gore did get the most votes (the "popular vote"), but Bush still managed to get the most electoral votes behind him. A recount of votes in Florida that determined the outcome was shut down by the Supreme Court at the time, Lichtman defends.
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